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County Council given 3 scenarios for 2017 budget talks

July 21, 2016   ·   0 Comments

At its session last Thursday, Dufferin County Council was given a slide show prepared by staff which outlined three possible scenarios for its 2017 budget.

The three were basically choices between maintaining the status quo, with tax increases held to the current rate of general inflation; expanding existing services in respond to current demands, and reducing service levels to keep tax hikes below the inflation rate.

Under the first scenario the Council would “stick as close as we can to the forecasted figures that were in the 2016 Budget package for years 2017 and beyond,” possibly revising them slightly “to allow for any new external conditions and realities.”

The presentation noted that Council would have to be guided by its Strategic Plan, which says, under Good Governance, Council should “develop a long term financial plan (LTFP) that responsibly balances infrastructure requirements against local economic conditions”

The 2017 County Budget would be “a starting point, giving some initial direction, to assist with the development of this LTFP.”

Under the status quo scenario, using 2017-2019 forecast numbers appearing in the 2016 Budget, Net Operations would cost 3 per cent more in 2017, and the Capital Levy would rise to 1.75% from 1.5%, but assessment growth would leave taxpayers facing a 2.09% hike.

“The 2016 stated intention was to continue to expand the Capital Budget each year, but in smaller steps than the one taken in 2016, resulting in net tax impacts that are approximately equal to general inflation each year.”

Achieving its targets in the next few years will be assisted by the expiry of some of the County’s current debt load.

“Ending of SAR (South Arterial Route 109) debt payments in 2016 will free up $150,000 from the Operations budget for 2017; this saving helps to enable hitting the 3% Operations budget target.”

The next major “drop-off” of an ongoing municipal debt will be the Dufferin Oaks debt. “The last year for it is 2019, and the amount ‘saved’ (approx. $900,000) could be shifted over (in 2020) to the Capital Budget, as part of the LTFP strategy. If this was done, County would reach its Capital-Levy goal ($10M) sooner than 2022.”

If Council were to choose Scenario 2, some options for service expansion might include construction of a new Social Housing facility, creation of a “County inter-municipal transit/transportation service” and establishment of an Economic Development officer / division.”

Some options for changes to service delivery, might include full-time planning position(s), a full-time Purchasing Officer and use of consultants for an External Operations Review.

Under Scenario 3 the goal of keeping the 2017 tax impact below inflation would requires Council to specify County services and programs that might be reduced, temporarily suspended, deferred or deleted.

However, the goal “could also be achieved (in whole or in part) by making large withdrawals in 2017 from County Reserves, to limit the need for reducing services, and/or “abandon the plan to gradually increase the Capital Tax Levy, and allow the Infrastructure Gap to expand, to limit the need for reducing services.”

Adopting that scenario would rule out any new or expanded service that  would increase the Budget.

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